Quant researcher · US equities, intraday

The rule didn't hold every day.

Then I wrote the rule down. More than four years of exposure to US equities, gold and FX. This page is the part of the record that a table can't show.

Scroll to the part I got wrong

The failure · 25 February 2026

February cost 42.9%.

Account B's maximum realized drawdown was −$34,128, reached on 25 February 2026. Before March there was no intraday stop-loss rule. Losses could accumulate past any daily threshold, and they did.

−$34,128 · 25 Feb 2026

Schematic, not to scale. Exact figures in the record.

−$34,128Max realized drawdown, Account B
−$25,237Worst day, Account B · 4 Feb
−$24,306Combined February net P&L

The fix · March 2026

Then I wrote the rule down. 2% a day.

A daily loss limit, plus a three-losing-day handoff. Same month, replayed against the line that didn't exist in February. This is the part most records stop at.

2% DAILY LOSS LIMIT

Same schematic. Highlighted segment is where the curve breaches the limit.

2%Daily loss limit, adopted after February
3Losing days before handoff

What the fix missed · after March

The rule didn't hold every day.

Days losing more than 2% of equity still happened after the rule was adopted — about four in Account A and nine in Account B. The rules reduced neither the need for monitoring nor the importance of disclosure.

Account A · days over 2%

4Post-March days over the limit

Account B · days over 2%

9Post-March days over the limit

Each square is one trading day in a schematic field; lit squares are the days that lost more than 2%. Counts are exact.

83Trading days, Account A
108Trading days, Account B
$103,288Combined net realized P&L

The process · 09:30 to 10:30

One hour. One setup. No exceptions.

Short-duration trades in liquid US equities. Opening-range breakouts and 9 EMA / VWAP breakouts, confirmed with cumulative volume delta divergence and a 200 EMA trend filter. Executed in clips, mostly in the first hour after the open.

09:30ET · window
Median trade notional $41,909 and $37,034. Typically 200–500 share clips in high-liquidity, high-beta names.
09:31 ORB · opening range set accept
09:47 9 EMA / VWAP breakout · CVD divergence accept
09:52 breakout without 200 EMA agreement reject

Schematic tape. Illustrative sequence, not a trade log.

11.6Closed trades per day, Account A
18.2Closed trades per day, Account B
$6,269Fees paid, Account A

The research · validation

A branch I froze instead of traded.

Walk-forward and Monte Carlo validation. On Nasdaq opening-range trades, range size, direction and VWAP slope held up under robustness testing. Execution overlays did not show a confirmed edge, and that branch was frozen rather than deployed.

EXECUTION OVERLAY · RETIRED

Illustrative simulated paths. One branch frozen; the rest were never traded. Hover, tap or focus the fan and use ← → to read any path.

1,000Simulated equity paths
1Branch frozen rather than traded

Verification

Check the numbers. Then discount them.

Everything above is a summary. The record holds the tables, the month-by-month series and the risk statistics. Evidence can be reviewed without publishing client identifiers.

$103,288Combined net realized P&L
119.7%Account A · 83 trading days
224.6%Account B · 108 trading days
Open the full record

Limitations, stated plainly: two accounts, one five-to-eight-month window, realized P&L only, net of commissions and fees. Past results do not guarantee future results.